XRP Price Prediction: Can the $1.09 Support Spark a Recovery to $2?

#XRP

• XRP has broken below the 20-day moving average of $1.2741, signaling short-term bearish momentum and potential for a test of the $1.09 Bollinger lower band.
• Mixed market sentiment from news: bearish capital outflows contrast with bullish on-chain activity growth, suggesting potential capitulation or accumulation phase.
• Only a 10% probability of reaching $2 within 3-6 months, requiring a daily close above $1.27 and $1.45 to invalidate the current downtrend.

XRP Price Prediction

XRP Faces Critical Support Test as Key Technical Levels Break Down

XRP is currently trading at $1.165, significantly below its 20-day moving average of $1.2741, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. According to BTCC financial analyst William, 'The breakdown below the 20-day MA is a clear warning sign for bulls. The MACD reading of 0.0216 suggests the bullish cross from earlier in the month is losing steam, with the histogram turning negative in the coming sessions.' The Bollinger Bands show price action near the lower band at $1.0905, with the middle band at $1.2741 acting as immediate resistance. William adds, 'XRP is hugging the lower band, which often precedes a bounce, but the overall structure suggests a retest of the $1.09 support is likely before any meaningful recovery.'

Mixed Signals: Oversold Bounce Risks Meet Collapse Fears

Recent headlines paint a conflicting picture for XRP. While 'XRP Outflows Surge Amid Price Stagnation' and 'Korean Traders Pull $135M in XRP from Upbit' suggest bearish sentiment, 'XRP Ledger Daily Active Users Surge Past 215k' indicates growing network utility. BTCC financial analyst William comments, 'The outflow data shows smart money is de-risking, but the user growth on the ledger provides a fundamental counterbalance. We're at a crossroads where on-chain activity could eventually absorb selling pressure.' The 50% collapse risk highlighted in news headlines aligns with the technical breakdown, but William warns: 'Bearish news dominance often marks capitulation phases. If XRP holds above $1.09, this could be the bottom.'

Factors Influencing XRP’s Price

XRP Nears Critical $0.90 Threshold as Market Watches Key Support Level

XRP's approach to the $0.90 price level has drawn significant attention from market analysts, who view it as a pivotal zone in the monthly outlook. This threshold aligns with a long-term ascending trendline maintained since the 2020-2021 bottom formations, reinforcing the asset's bullish technical structure despite past corrections.

Technical assessments highlight $0.90 as a convergence point of multiple factors—it sits near the multi-year bullish support line and below the current $1.14 consolidation zone. Analyst Ali Charts notes the price could gradually edge toward this rising support area, with market interest likely to intensify at these levels.

Investor sentiment remains divided as XRP shows resilience after its rally to $3.32 faced rejection. The current pullback is being interpreted as a controlled correction rather than a trend reversal, with the broader market debate now refocusing on regulatory implications for the asset.

XRP Tests Key Support Levels as Oversold Signal Emerges

XRP's slide to $1.12 has triggered a rare oversold signal, drawing scrutiny from analysts monitoring its correlation with broader crypto market weakness. The token now tests critical technical thresholds—including its 200-week moving average—amid divergent interpretations of long-term structure.

EGRAG Crypto highlights $0.7770, $1.1600, and $1.6500 as decisive zones for institutional traders. 'Macro liquidity conditions outweigh short-term volatility,' the analyst noted, pointing to XRP's historical resilience after similar RSI extremes.

Market makers appear active near $1.12, with order book data showing layered bids down to $1.05. The current consolidation mirrors patterns seen before XRP's 2021 breakout, though sentiment remains fragile given regulatory overhangs.

XRP Faces 50% Collapse Risk After 71% Plunge in 2026 Cycle

XRP’s downward spiral continues unabated, with the token now flirting with oversold territory in its four-year cycle from 2022-2026. January saw a 10.6% decline, February a brutal 16.2% drop, and June opened with a 15.7% loss—April’s meager 2.13% gain offering the only respite this year.

The roots of this decline trace back to late 2025, when structural weaknesses emerged despite July’s 35% surge. Veteran trader Bob Loukas observes potential for a dead-cat bounce, but warns the damage runs deeper: 'This isn’t capitulation—it’s a market losing conviction.' Technicals suggest another 50% drop could materialize before December.

XRP Outflows Surge Amid Price Stagnation at $1.13

XRP markets are sending mixed signals as investors grapple with conflicting data. Over 25 million XRP have exited major exchanges, a move typically interpreted as long-term bullish. Yet the token's price remains stagnant at $1.13, failing to capitalize on what should be positive momentum.

Institutional interest persists through ETF inflows, suggesting quiet accumulation beneath surface-level volatility. "The divergence between fund flows and price action tells us this is a market searching for direction," observes analyst Crypto Jet. Spot demand weakness has amplified Bitcoin's influence across altcoins, including XRP.

Market stability has become the new focal point as traders weigh sustained outflows against muted price performance. The coming weeks will reveal whether this accumulation phase precedes a breakout or prolonged consolidation.

Korean Traders Pull $135M in XRP from Upbit Amid Market Downturn

South Korean investors are demonstrating resilience in the face of XRP's price slump, withdrawing over $135 million worth of the token from Upbit alone. This movement accounts for nearly half of the $321 million in global exchange outflows recorded over the past week.

The coordinated withdrawal suggests strategic repositioning rather than panic selling. Market observers note this mirrors 2021's 'hold-and-withdraw' patterns, when Korean traders similarly accumulated assets during corrections.

XRP's liquidity crunch on exchanges may amplify volatility. Upbit's order books show bid-ask spreads widening by 18% since withdrawals began, creating potential arbitrage opportunities for institutional players.

XRP Ledger Daily Active Users Surge Past 215k, Signaling Renewed Momentum

The XRP Ledger has recorded a significant uptick in network activity, with daily active users surpassing 215,000 for the first time since March. On-chain data reveals 215,399 active addresses on June 5, marking a notable resurgence after months of subdued participation.

This surge reflects growing developer and investor interest in the Ripple-affiliated blockchain, particularly for cross-border payment solutions. The Q2 2024 milestone contrasts sharply with April-May figures that hovered between 130,000-180,000 daily users.

While technical indicators remain bearish for XRP's price, the fundamental strength of increased network usage creates an intriguing divergence. Historical patterns suggest such activity spikes often precede price appreciation, though market dynamics remain complex.

XRP Tests Key Support Levels Amid 70% Drawdown From 2025 Highs

XRP's descent below $1.10 marks its weakest performance since 2024, with the Ripple-affiliated token now down 18% weekly and 70% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65. The sell-off mirrors broader crypto market weakness, including Bitcoin's struggle to hold $60,000.

Technical analysts warn of further downside. ChartNerdTA identifies a breakdown below the $1.35 monthly regression band, suggesting a potential 23% drop toward $0.84. However, long-term charts show strong support at $0.95, with some traders anticipating a eventual cup-and-handle breakout back toward all-time highs.

Fundamentally, Ripple's CTO outlined new XRP Ledger development priorities focused on tokenized real-world assets. While spot XRP ETFs approved in late 2025 provided temporary relief, they've failed to stem the current capitulation.

Will XRP Price Hit 2?

Based on current technical and fundamental data, a move to $2 is unlikely in the near term without a major catalyst. Here's the data-driven outlook:

BTCC financial analyst William notes: 'For XRP to hit $2, we need to see a failure of the bearish technical setup—specifically, a daily close above $1.27 followed by a break of $1.45. This would require either a legal win for Ripple or a sudden influx of institutional buying. Without that, the path of least resistance remains downward.'